Evaluation of Land Use Change and Carbon Storage in Fujian Province Based on PLUS-InVEST Model

Shaanxi Normal University

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the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities

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    Fujian Province has a forest coverage rate as high as 66.8%, which ranks first among all provinces in China in terms of forest coverage rate. [Purpose]The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatial and temporal variations of carbon storage in Fujian Province and aim to provide a theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Method] Based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model's carbon storage module, this study examines the relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and its correlation with land use types in the province from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage in Fujian Province from 2020 to 2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The study reveals that the total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t respectively, indicating a downward trend over the years. The development and transformation of land by human activities is the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks. The conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas is the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results show that compared with 2020, carbon storage under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030 will decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t respectively. The ecological protection scenario is the only development scenario that can reverse the decline in carbon stocks. Compared to 2020, the forest area has expanded by 1,900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage has increased by 2.08 ×107 t. This can effectively protect the ecology while also meeting the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Therefore, prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

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  • Received:July 19,2023
  • Revised:September 13,2023
  • Adopted:September 14,2023
  • Online: January 27,2024
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