ObjectiveTo explore the morphological characteristics and spatial evolution patterns of rural settlements in the karst depression rocky desertification area.MethodsThe distribution of rural settlements under the scenarios of economic development, natural development, and ecological protection by 2035 was predicted using the PLUS model. The morphological characteristics of rural settlements were identified through Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA), while the past, present, and future morphological characteristics and spatial evolution patterns of rural settlements were analyzed using landscape pattern indices, landscape comprehensive dynamics, and the Ripley K function method.Results1) There was an increasing trend in the area of rural settlements from 1990 to 2022, with the area expanding by 6.09 km² and the number of settlements increasing from 366 to 1 253. The core and edge were identified as the dominant types of rural settlements in the study area, with their areas increasing by 1.90 and 1.51 km², respectively, primarily concentrated in the central part of the study area. In contrast, isolated patches and branches, which increased by 1.07 and 1.15 km² respectively, were mainly distributed in the northern and northeastern parts. 2) The complexity, richness, and fragmentation of rural settlement types generally showed an increasing trend. The development of rural settlement types was most gradual from 1990 to 2000 and most intense from 2010 to 2022, with the expansion primarily occurring in Xingjie Village, Laojie Village, and their surrounding areas. Across the study scale, rural settlement types exhibited a clustering trend, which weakened as the spatial scale increased, and the urbanization process led to a reduction at spatial scale. 3) Under all three scenarios, the area of rural settlements showed an increasing trend, with the areas reaching 11.42, 7.68 and 9.14 km², respectively. The core type was identified as the dominant type in the study area, with its area increasing by 4.02, 2.60 and 3.14 km², respectively. Rural settlement types exhibited a clustering distribution pattern across spatial scales, with the ecological protection scenario restricting the expansion of rural settlements.ConclusionRural settlements in the study area are in a rapid development stage, with expansion mainly occurring in the core areas. The expansion of isolated patches has increased the complexity of the spatial distribution of rural settlements, and during the urbanization process, rural settlements have gradually concentrated within smaller spatial scales.