ObjectiveTo explore the correlation between land use ecological risk and carbon storage, in order to improve the regional ecological risk prevention and carbon sequestration capabilities, so as to effectively guide the formulation of environmental management policies.MethodsThe landscape pattern index, PLUS and InVEST models were used to analyze and predict the spatial and temporal changes of land use ecological risk and carbon storage in Yunnan Province under the scenarios of natural development, economic development, and ecological protection. Spearman correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to explore the correlation characteristics.Results1) Land use in Yunnan Province is dominated by forest land, which exceeded 57% of the total area. 2) From 2000 to 2020, the ecological risk in Yunnan Province decreased slowly, with lower and medium-risk areas exceeding 50%, the spatial distribution remained relatively stable, the change of risk mainly occurred between adjacent levels, and the high-level risk area transferred to the low-level risk area by 39 675.06 km². 3) Carbon storage in Yunnan Province initially increased and then decreased, with a total reduction of 2.257×10⁷ t from 2000 to 2020. Forest land contributed the most to carbon storage, while large-scale conversion of cropland, grassland, and forest land into construction land was the main reason for the reduction in carbon storage. 4) The ecological risk and carbon storage of Yunnan Province would decrease under all three scenarios in 2030. Under the ecological protection scenario, forest land area would increase by 895.83 km² compared to 2020, high and higher ecological risks would significantly decrease, and the reduction in carbon storage would be suppressed, indicating that this is the optimal scenario for the future development of Yunnan Province. 5) Ecological risk and carbon storage in the study area were negatively correlated, with spatial distribution mainly characterized by low-high and high-low aggregations.ConclusionThe study provides various recommendations based on the spatial aggregation characteristics of ecological risk and carbon storage in Yunnan Province, offering a scientific basis for preventing ecological risks and enhancing carbon storage in the region.