[Objective] To assess the water-source containment capacity of the upper Yellow River region, and to provide scientific basis for the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin. [Methods] Taking Ningxia as a case area, we calculated the spatial and temporal evolution trend of Ningxia"s water-sourcing capacity from 1990 to 2020 based on the InVEST model, the Hurst index and the geodetector model, and identified its key influencing factors. [Results] The land use pattern of? Ningxia changes significantly, except for the unused land, the rest of the land use types show different degrees of increasing trends; the water conservation volume of Ningxia shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2020, with an increase of about 0.009 mm/year, and the spatial distribution pattern of ‘low in the north and high in the south’, and the distribution pattern of ‘low in the north and high in the south’, and the distribution pattern of ‘low in the north and high in the south’. The distribution pat