[Objective] The study aims to reveal the characteristics of the response of runoff to land use and climate change in the Tao'er River Basin, and to predict the future evolution of runoff in the basin. [Methods] The runoff response process of the watershed was quantitatively analyzed based on the SWAT model with the CMIP6 climate model and PLUS model driving meteorological and land use changes, respectively, to project development scenarios for 2025-2100, using the Tao'er River watershed as the study area. [Results] (1) the SWAT model had an R2 greater than 0.75 and an NSE greater than 0.65 for both the rate period and the validation period; the overall accuracy of the PLUS model is greater than 0.85, and the Kappa coefficient is greater than 0.80,, and the two models had good applicability in this watershed;(2)relative to the baseline period (1990-2022), the Tao'er River Basin receives higher precipitation under all three future scenarios than during the historical period, as shown by SSP126 > SSP585 > SSP245; and higher temperatures under all three future scenarios than during the historical period, as shown by SSP585 > SSP245 > SSP126;(3) during the period of 2025-2100, the areas of cropland, watersheds, and unutilized land in the Tao'er River Basin increased significantly, and the area of forested land increased slowly, whereas the areas of grasslands and built-up land continue to decrease; (4) the average annual runoff in the future period will exceed the level of the base period under the SSP126 scenario, while it will be lower than the level of the base period under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, and the average multi-year runoff under the three scenarios will be 11.17×108, 9.00×108, 9.34×108m3/s. [Conclusion] The Tao'er river basin future runoff change presents the trend of continuous growth, therefore should enhance the flood control consciousness when the annual average runoff maximum value in three level years, the research result provides certain reference basis for the reasonable development and construction of the Tao'er river basin in the future.