湘江流域极端降水变化及其对输沙量影响
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西安理工大学

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基于侵蚀能量过程的集合式流域水土流失预报模型(U2040208),陕北黄土高原区人-水耦合系统互馈及协同进化机理研究(52179024)


Variation of Eextreme Precipitation and Its Influence on Sediment Transport in Xiangjiang River Basin
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1.Xi '2.'3.an University of Technology

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Integrated Water and soil loss prediction Model based on Erosion Energy Process (U2040208), Mutual Feed and Co-evolution mechanism of human-water Coupling System in the Loess Plateau of Northern Shaanxi Province (52179024)

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    摘要:

    [目的]为了探究湘江流域极端降水的变化及其对输沙量的影响因素,[方法]收集湘江流域1965-2018年及其周边13个气象站的日降水数据,采用RClimDex模型进行选取并计算7个极端降水指数。空间分布特征通过线性拟合法和5年滑动平均法进行趋势分析,辅助计算各指数Cv值,Spearman相关系数、Kendall相关系数。时间特征从指数线性变化与5年滑动平均过程线初步观察,使用M-K突变检验法、Lee-Heghinian检验法、有序聚类法对湘江流域年均输沙量进行突变检验。双累积曲线定量分析极端降水指数对该时段输沙量变化的贡献率。[结果]结果如下:(1)流域各极端降水指标54年间年际变化趋势除CWD外均表现为增加趋势。极端降水事件历时延长,降水量与降水强度显著增加。(2)各降水指数的空间分布情况与地形特点基本一致,均为从流域西南部向东北部逐渐增加的趋势,7个指数均在南岳站出现最大值。(3)流域输沙量在1984年、1997年发生突变,1985-1997年期间,极端降水量指标R99P对流域输沙量减少的影响最大,贡献率为10.5 %,1998-2018年同样是极端降水量指标R95P对输沙量的减少有所改变,贡献率是18.1 %,但是整个变化期内各极端降水指数对输沙量减少的影响均小于20 %。[结论]综上,极端降水对流域输沙量的减少产生一定影响,但人类活动仍是导致输沙量减小的主要因素。

    Abstract:

    [Objective] In order to explore the change of extreme precipitation in Xiangjiang River Basin and its influencing factors on sediment transport, [Methods] Daily precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations in Xiangjiang River Basin and its surrounding areas during 1965-2018 were collected, and 7 extreme precipitation indices were selected and calculated using RClimDex model. The spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed by linear fitting method and 5-year moving average method, and the Cv value of each index, Spearman correlation coefficient and Kendall correlation coefficient were calculated. The time characteristics were observed from the linear exponential change and the 5-year moving average process line. M-K mutation test, Lee-Heghinian test and ordered clustering method were used to test the mutation of the average annual sediment transport in Xiangjiang River Basin. The contribution rate of extreme precipitation index to the change of sediment transport during this period was quantitatively analyzed by double accumulation curve. [Results] The results are as follows: (1) The interannual variation trend of extreme precipitation indexes in the basin during 54 years showed an increasing trend except for CWD. The duration of extreme precipitation events was prolonged, and the precipitation and precipitation intensity increased significantly. (2) The spatial distribution of each precipitation index is basically consistent with the terrain characteristics, and the trend is gradually increasing from the southwest to the northeast of the basin, and the maximum value of the 7 indexes is found at Nanyue Station. (3) Abrupt changes occurred in 1984 and 1997. During 1985-1997, the extreme precipitation index R99P had the greatest impact on the reduction of sediment transport in the basin, with a contribution rate of 10.5%. During 1998-2018, the same extreme precipitation index R95P had a change in the reduction of sediment transport. The contribution rate is 18.1%, but the influence of extreme precipitation index on sediment transport reduction is less than 20%. [Conclusion] In conclusion, extreme precipitation has a certain effect on the reduction of sediment transport in the basin, but human activities are still the main factor leading to the reduction of sediment transport.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-11
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-18
  • 录用日期:2024-10-25
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-21
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