黄河三角洲城市景观生态风险测度及影响因素研究
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山东师范大学商学院

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F301.23

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目(23BGL312)资助。[Foundation: National Social Science Foundation of China(23BGL312).]


Study on Urban Landscape Ecological Risk Measurement and Influencing Factors in the Yellow River Delta
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Business School,Shandong Normal University

Fund Project:

The National Social Science Fund of China, No. 23BGL312.

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    摘要:

    [目的]黄河三角洲作为典型生态脆弱区,其景观生态风险受多重因素影响,表现尤为突出。系统认知景观风险不仅是优化景观格局的基础,更是有效应对生态风险的关键。[方法]以黄河三角洲典型城市东营市为研究区,构建生态系统服务价值和“胁迫度—脆弱度—韧性”的景观生态受损概率评估框架。采用ESDA和地理探测器模型,从网格尺度探究城市景观生态风险的空间异质性及影响因素。[结果](1)东营市景观生态风险平均值为0.15,呈现“北部东部高,中偏西南低”的空间格局。生态系统服务价值约为3175.99亿元,占GDP的93%,经济发展表现为不可持续增长,呈现由北部、东部沿海向西南部逐步递减的空间格局。生态受损概率为0.43,呈现“北部东部高低交错,中偏西南整体较低”的空间格局。(2)景观生态风险呈显著的空间集聚特征,全局Moran’s I指数为0.747。高风险区主要集中在东营市北部和东部沿海,占风险区面积的32.48%。(3)东营市景观生态风险主要受社会经济基础和环境区位条件影响。在全市范围内,海岸线距离是主导因素,决定度为0.43;在城镇区域,人口密度为决定性因素,决定度为0.38。[结论]研究不仅在理论上丰富了景观生态风险评估方法,也为黄河三角洲生态保护和风险管理提供实证支持。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]The Yellow River Delta, a typical ecological fragile area, faces prominent landscape ecological risk (LER) due to multiple factors. Systematic understanding of landscape risk is crucial for optimizing landscape patterns and effectively addressing ecological challenges.[Methods] Taking Dongying, a typical city of the Yellow River Delta as the study area to construct a assessment framework of ecosystem service value and the probability of landscape ecological damage in terms of “stress-vulnerability-resilience”. The ESDA and Geographic detector were used to explore the spatial heterogeneity and influencing factors of LER at the grid scale.[Results](1) The average value of LER in Dongying is 0.15, generally shows a spatial pattern of “high in the north and east, low in the middle and southwest”. The total value of ecosystem services is about 3 175.99 billion yuan (93% of GDP), indicate unsustainable economic growth, showing a pattern of gradual diminution form the north and eastern coast to the southwestern. The probability of ecological damage is 0.43, showing a pattern of “staggered distribution of high and low in the north and east, and overall low in the southwest part”.(2) It is found that the LER showed significant clustering in spatial distribution, with a global Moran’s I index of 0.747. In terms of agglomeration zoning, the HH risk agglomeration area accounts for 32.48% of the area of the risk zone, which is mainly distributed in the continuous distribution zone formed by the coastal zone in the north and east of Dongying.(3) The LER of Dongying is mainly dominated by factors of socio-economic foundation and environmental location conditions. In the citywide area, the determinant of coastline distance was 0.43, which was the primary factor dominating the urban LER. In contrast, in the urban area, the determinant of population density was 0.38, which was the decisive factor influencing the urban LER.[Conclusions] This study enriches the LER assessment method theoretically, and provides empirical support for ecological protection and risk management in the Yellow River Delta.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-07-25
  • 最后修改日期:2024-09-22
  • 录用日期:2024-09-23
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-01-09
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