1.武汉大学 城市设计学院;2.武汉大学 中国发展战略与规划研究院;3.湖北省人居环境工程技术研究中心
1.Wuhan University School of urban design;2.China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning;3.Center of Hubei Human Habitat Engineering and Technology
[Objective]To scientifically understand the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of urban space, agricultural space and ecological space in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area is of great significant. [Methods]Therefore, based on the methods of land transfer matrix, topographic position analysis and random forest regression, this paper studies the evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of 'three-function space' in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area from 2000 to 2020. [Results]The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the urban space in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area have been expanding violently, and the agricultural and ecological space has been shrinking continuously. The population of the counties which account for 58.33 % of the total population has been decreasing, while the urban space is still expanding. There is a serious differentiation between population growth and urban expansion. (2) The urban and agricultural space is gradually increasing, and the ecological space is decreasing. The new urban and agricultural space is moving up 1~2 terrain positions on average, and the downstream Danjiangkou Reservoir heightening project has a significant indigenous impact on the spatial distribution gradient of the overall land in mountainous areas. (3) The dynamic cross-conversion between agricultural space and ecological space is the dominant type of the study area, and the influence of fiscal expenditure on it is the most obvious. Agricultural space is the main source of new urban space, and the scale of urban degradation into agricultural and ecological space is remarkable. (4) Land development policy, mountainous terrain attributes, traffic location conditions and socio-economic factors jointly restrict the evolution results. The intensity of each type of factors in different transformation directions and the number of prominent indigenous factors are significantly different.[Conclusion] The optimization of the land spatial pattern in the study area can be concentrated from the newly added towns to the key development zones, scientifically guide the agricultural and ecological space to conform to the terrain gradient layout, carefully carry out the construction of water conservancy projects, and plan the overall layout of the "Three zones and Three lines" in the region.