秦巴山区国土空间格局演变特征及驱动力分析
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作者单位:

1.武汉大学 城市设计学院;2.武汉大学 中国发展战略与规划研究院;3.湖北省人居环境工程技术研究中心

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中图分类号:

F129.9

基金项目:

国家发展改革委员会重大事项委托项目(201708);湖北省自然科学基金面上项目(2023AFB794)


Analysis on the Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Territorial Space Pattern in the Qinling-Daba Mountain Area
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Affiliation:

1.Wuhan University School of urban design;2.China Institute of Development Strategy and Planning;3.Center of Hubei Human Habitat Engineering and Technology

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    摘要:

    [目的]科学认知秦巴山区城镇空间、农业空间和生态空间的时空演化过程与形成机理,是助力全国空间发展格局统筹协调和推动中西部崛起的关键,更是地区高质量转型发展的迫切需求。[方法]基于空间转移矩阵、地形位分析和随机森林回归等方法,从“格局规模―地形位置”两个维度切入,研究2000—2020年间秦巴山区国土空间时空演化特征与驱动机制。[结果](1)近20年秦巴山区城镇剧烈扩张、农业和生态空间持续缩减,占比58.33%的县区人口减少的同时城镇用地依然呈扩张态势,“人口总量―城镇规模”出现严重两极分化;(2)城镇、农业空间“上山爬坡”、生态空间“下谷”现象明显,新增城镇和农业空间平均上移1~2个地形位,下游丹江口水库坝体加高工程对山区整体国土空间分布梯度产生显著影响;(3)“农业空间―生态空间”动态调整置换是秦巴山区主导转换类型,财政支出的影响作用最为显著;农业空间是新增城镇的主要来源,同时秦巴山区城镇退化为农业、生态空间的规模显著;(4)国土开发政策、山地地形属性、交通区位条件和社会经济因素共同制约影响秦巴山区国土空间演化结果,各类型因素在不同转换方向上的作用强度和显著因子数量有明显差异。[结论]推动新增城镇向重点开发区集中,科学引导农业和生态空间顺应地形梯度布局,慎重进行水利工程建设,整体谋划区域“三区三线”布局,将对秦巴山区国土空间格局优化起到积极影响。

    Abstract:

    [Objective]To scientifically understand the spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of urban space, agricultural space and ecological space in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area is of great significant. [Methods]Therefore, based on the methods of land transfer matrix, topographic position analysis and random forest regression, this paper studies the evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of 'three-function space' in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area from 2000 to 2020. [Results]The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the urban space in the Qinling-Daba Mountain area have been expanding violently, and the agricultural and ecological space has been shrinking continuously. The population of the counties which account for 58.33 % of the total population has been decreasing, while the urban space is still expanding. There is a serious differentiation between population growth and urban expansion. (2) The urban and agricultural space is gradually increasing, and the ecological space is decreasing. The new urban and agricultural space is moving up 1~2 terrain positions on average, and the downstream Danjiangkou Reservoir heightening project has a significant indigenous impact on the spatial distribution gradient of the overall land in mountainous areas. (3) The dynamic cross-conversion between agricultural space and ecological space is the dominant type of the study area, and the influence of fiscal expenditure on it is the most obvious. Agricultural space is the main source of new urban space, and the scale of urban degradation into agricultural and ecological space is remarkable. (4) Land development policy, mountainous terrain attributes, traffic location conditions and socio-economic factors jointly restrict the evolution results. The intensity of each type of factors in different transformation directions and the number of prominent indigenous factors are significantly different.[Conclusion] The optimization of the land spatial pattern in the study area can be concentrated from the newly added towns to the key development zones, scientifically guide the agricultural and ecological space to conform to the terrain gradient layout, carefully carry out the construction of water conservancy projects, and plan the overall layout of the "Three zones and Three lines" in the region.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-08-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-10-16
  • 录用日期:2023-10-18
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-02-05
  • 出版日期: