Shaanxi Normal University
the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities
福建省森林覆盖率高达66.8%，是我国森林覆盖率排名第一的省份。[目的]探讨福建省土地利用变化对碳储量时空变化的影响是探寻社会发展和生态保护平衡点的理论基础。[方法]本文基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型碳储量模块，揭示了2000—2020年全省碳储量时空变化特征和土地利用类型之间的关系，并从自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展3种情景预测了2020—2030年福建省碳储量时空变化。[结果]研究表明，2000年、2010年和2020年研究区的总碳储量分别为214.77×107 ，214.51×107，212.93×107 t，呈现逐年下降的趋势。人类活动对土地的开发和改造是导致碳储量变化的主导因素，大面积的耕地和林地转变为建设用地是导致碳储量降低的直接原因。预测结果认为，与2020年相比，2030年自然发展、生态保护和城镇发展情景下碳储量分别减少了1.47×107 t，增加了0.17×107 t，减少了1.85×107 t。生态保护情景是唯一逆转碳储量下降的发展情景，该情景与2020年相比，林地面积扩张了1 900.87 km2，林地碳储量增长2.08 ×107 t，这在切实保护生态的同时也能够满足城镇发展的土地需求。[结论]因此，落实以林地保护为主，控制建设用地，是福建省实现“双碳”目标的重要前提。
Fujian Province has a forest coverage rate as high as 66.8%, which ranks first among all provinces in China in terms of forest coverage rate. [Purpose]The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of land use changes on the spatial and temporal variations of carbon storage in Fujian Province and aim to provide a theoretical basis for exploring the balance between social development and ecological protection. [Method] Based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model's carbon storage module, this study examines the relationship between the spatiotemporal change characteristics of carbon storage and its correlation with land use types in the province from 2000 to 2020. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal changes in carbon storage in Fujian Province from 2020 to 2030 were predicted from three scenarios: natural development, ecological protection and urban development. [Results] The study reveals that the total carbon reserves in the study area in 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 214.77×107, 214.51×107 and 212.93×107 t respectively, indicating a downward trend over the years. The development and transformation of land by human activities is the dominant factor leading to changes in carbon stocks. The conversion of large areas of cultivated land and forest land into urban areas is the primary reason for the decline in carbon stocks. The prediction results show that compared with 2020, carbon storage under the scenarios of natural development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030 will decrease by 1.47×107 t, increase by 0.17×107 t, and decrease by 1.85×107 t respectively. The ecological protection scenario is the only development scenario that can reverse the decline in carbon stocks. Compared to 2020, the forest area has expanded by 1,900.87 km2 and the forest carbon storage has increased by 2.08 ×107 t. This can effectively protect the ecology while also meeting the land requirements for urban development. [Conclusion] Therefore, prioritizing forest land protection and controlling the expansion of construction land are crucial prerequisites for Fujian Province to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.