In order to achieve the "Dual carbon" target of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, based on the land use data (LULC) in 2000, 2010 and 2020 and followed the 14th Five-Year Plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, three scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection were established. The PLUS model was used to forecast and analyze the spatial distribution of land use in 2030 of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The changes of carbon storage under different development scenarios in the Region were analyzed with the InVEST Model. The research results showed that: (1) The area of forest land and construction land in Inner Mongolia increased from 2000 to 2020, while the area of cultivated land, water area, grassland and unused land showed a downward trend, and the main transfer direction was from cultivated land to construction land. (2) Under the state of natural development, the area of cultivated land, grassland, water area, and unused land decreased, while the area of forest land and construction land showed an upward trend; under the state of ecological protection, the area of forest land, grassland, and water area increased compared with the natural development scenario; under the cultivated land protection scenario, the cultivated land area showed an expansion trend compared with the natural development scenario, and the expanded area reached 4.69×10⁴ hm². (3) In 2000, 2010, and 2020, the carbon storage in Inner Mongolia reached 1.371 7×10¹⁰, 1.370 9×10¹⁰ and 1.370 6×10¹⁰ t, respectively, showing a decreasing trend year by year. In 2030, the total carbon storage under the three scenarios of natural development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection was 1.370 1×10¹⁰, 1.370 6×10¹⁰ and 1.371 9×10¹⁰ t, respectively. Compared with the natural development scenario, the carbon storage of cultivated land protection and ecological protection was larger, indicating that the implementation of protection measures could effectively control the decline of carbon storage. Therefore, the implementation of cultivated land protection and ecological protection policies could control the expansion of cultivated land into construction land and unused land, and improve the land use structure, and help to delay the loss of regional carbon storage.