高寒区多源降水产品精度与水文模拟效果评估——以雅鲁藏布江流域和拉萨河流域为例

班春广<sup>1; 2</sup>; 左德鹏<sup>1; 2</sup>; 徐宗学<sup>1; 2</sup>; 董义阳<sup>3</sup>; 王静<sup>4</sup>; 达瓦次仁<sup>4</sup>

文章摘要

班春广, 左德鹏, 徐宗学, 董义阳, 王静, 达瓦次仁.高寒区多源降水产品精度与水文模拟效果评估——以雅鲁藏布江流域和拉萨河流域为例[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(2):159~168,226

高寒区多源降水产品精度与水文模拟效果评估——以雅鲁藏布江流域和拉萨河流域为例

Assessment on the Accuracy and Hydrological Simulation Effect of Multi-source Precipitation Products in the High Cold Alpine Region—Case Study in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and the Lhasa River Basin

投稿时间：2022-08-18

DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.02.019

中文关键词: 卫星降水产品 VIC模型 SCE-UA算法径流模拟雅鲁藏布江流域

英文关键词: satellite precipitation products VIC model SCE-UA method runoff simulation the Yarlung Zangbo River basin

基金项目:国家自然科学基金重大研究计划重点支持项目(91647202);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3201104)

作者	单位	E-mail
班春广^1,2, 左德鹏^1,2, 徐宗学^1,2, 董义阳³, 王静⁴, 达瓦次仁⁴	1. 北京师范大学水科学研究院, 北京 100875 2. 城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室, 北京 100875 3. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司, 科学技术研究院, 北京 100038 4. 西藏自治区水文水资源勘测局, 拉萨 850000	zxxu@bnu.edu.cn

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中文摘要:

卫星降水产品在缺资料地区开展水文气象研究及径流模拟中发挥着至关重要的作用,然而卫星降水产品的精度可能会影响径流模拟效果。采用多种统计指标和VIC水文模型综合评估5种卫星降水产品(CMORPH-BLD、GSMaP_Gauge、CMFD、MSWEP和PERSIANN-CDR)在雅鲁藏布江流域的精度和拉萨河流域的水文模拟效果。结果表明:(1) CMORPH_BLD和GSMaP_Gauge在少雨季存在低估,CMFD在少雨季与观测值具有很好的一致性。MSWEP和PERSIANN-CDR在多雨季和少雨季存在高估。降水量方面,CMORPH-BLD和CMFD均较为接近观测值,其他降水产品存在不同程度的高估。(2)日尺度上,除CMFD外其他卫星降水数据与观测值具有较小的相关性(0.26~0.45),CMORPH-BLD和CMFD和观测值具有较好的一致性,CMFD和MSWEP探测小降水事件(0.1,0.5,1 mm/d)的能力优于GSMaP_Gauge。各卫星降水产品在探测强降水(2,5,10 mm/d)方面能力不足。日降水2 mm/d的降水阈值为各分类指数的变化点。(3)月尺度上,各降水产品与观测值具有很强的相关性(0.73~0.99),CMFD和CMORPH_BLD的精度较高,其他产品稍微偏低。(4) CMFD水文模拟效果最好,CMORPH-BLD次之,MSWEP产生令人满意的模拟结果,GSMaP_Gauge和PERSIANN-CDR表现不佳。CMFD和CMORPH-BLD在雅鲁藏布江地区水文气象研究及径流模拟中具有较大优势。研究结果对该地区的水文气象应用及水文水资源研究具有重要意义。

英文摘要:

Satellite precipitation products play a vital role in supporting hydrometeorological researches and runoff simulation in ungauged regions.However,the accuracy in satellite precipitation products might have an effect on streamflow simulation.A variety of statistical indicators and VIC models were adopted to assess the performance in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin and their hydrological application in Lhasa River basin for each of the five satellite precipitation products (Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) satellite-gauge merged product (CMORPH-BLD),Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation Gauge (GSMaP-Gauge),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD),Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP),and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR)).Results showed that:(1) CMORPH-BLD and GSMaP-Gauge underestimated the observed data in the low rainfall season,while CMFD had a good agreement with the observed values in the low rainfall season.MSWEP and PERSIANN-CDR overestimated the observed data in the high rainfall season and low season.In terms of precipitation,CMORPH-BLD and CMFD were close to the gauge observations,whereas other datasets produced overestimation to varying degrees.(2) In daily comparison,all satellite products except CMFD produced a small linear correlation with the gauge observations (0.26~0.45),CMORPH-BLD and CMFD had a better agreement with the gauge observations,and the ability of CMFD and MSWEP had better skill than GSMaP-Gauge in detecting low precipitation events (0.1,0.5 and 1 mm/d).Satellite precipitation products were less capable of detecting intense precipitation (2,5 and 10 mm/d).The daily precipitation threshold of 2 mm/d was considered the point of change in the rate of the contingency statistics.(3) In monthly comparison,all the precipitation products had a strong linear correlation with CC values in the range of 0.73~0.99.The accuracy of CMFD and CMORPH-BLD was relatively high,while the other products were slightly lower.(4) CMFD hydrological simulation results were the best,followed by CMORPH-BLD.MSWEP produced satisfactory simulation results,while GSMaP-Gauge and PERSIANN-CDR performed poorly.CMFD and CMORPH-BLD could provide valuable precipitation estimates in hydrometeorological studies and runoff simulation in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin.The results have important implications in regarding hydrometeorological studies and water resource studies in the study area.

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