| 陈莉会, 贺中华, 潘杉, 顾小林, 许明金, 游漫, 皮贵宁.基于不同时间尺度的喀斯特农业干旱时空演变特征及驱动探测——以贵州省为例[J].水土保持学报,2023,37(2):136~148 |
| 基于不同时间尺度的喀斯特农业干旱时空演变特征及驱动探测——以贵州省为例 |
| Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Karst Agricultural Drought Based on Different Time Scales and Driving Detection—A Case Study of Guizhou Province |
| 投稿时间：2022-08-11 |
| DOI：10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2023.02.017 |
| 中文关键词: 农业干旱 地理加权回归模型 地理探测器 干旱联合特征 降尺度 |
| 英文关键词: agricultural drought geographically weighted regression models geographic detector joint drought characteristics downscaling |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(u1612441,41471032);贵州省水利厅自然科学基金项目(KT201402,KT202237);贵州师范大学2015年博士科研启动项目 |
| 作者 | 单位 | E-mail | | 陈莉会1, 贺中华1,2,3, 潘杉1, 顾小林4, 许明金4, 游漫1, 皮贵宁1 | 1. 贵州师范大学地理与环境科学学院, 贵阳 550001
2. 贵州师范大学国家喀斯特石漠化防治工程技术研究中心, 贵阳 550001
3. 贵州省山地资源与环境遥感应用重点实验室, 贵阳 550001
4. 贵州省水文水资源局, 贵阳 550002 | zhonghuahe@gznu.edu.cn |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 为提高喀斯特农业干旱监测的准确性和进一步揭示其驱动机制,基于MODIS-NDVI/LST数据,利用地理加权回归模型对GLDAS土壤水分进行降尺度研究;并基于SSI对农业干旱进行识别,分析不同时间尺度农业干旱时空演变及联合概率特征;最后运用地理探测器揭示喀斯特农业干旱驱动机制。结果表明:(1)20年间,贵州省不同时间尺度的干旱强度整体上呈减弱趋势,干旱面积也呈减少趋势;干旱强度和干旱频率在空间上呈西高东低分布格局。(2)干旱联合特征值呈秋季＞冬季＞生长季＞夏季＞全年＞春季规律,说明贵州省秋冬容易发生较高强度和较多面积的农业干旱。(3)岩溶发育强度、降雨和海拔是喀斯特农业干旱主导驱动因子,与其空间分布有较强的耦合关系;不同因子交互作用对SSI均呈双因子增强和非线性增强,且各因子之间无显著性差异的组合较少,说明农业干旱是因子之间协同的结果。研究结果可为喀斯特农业干旱监测和防旱抗旱措施的制定提供参考依据。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| To improve the accuracy of karst agricultural drought monitoring and further reveal its driving mechanism,a downscaling study of GLDAS soil moisture was conducted based on MODIS-NDVI/LST data using a geographically weighted regression model;agricultural drought was identified based on SSI,and the spatial and temporal evolution and joint probability characteristics of agricultural drought at different time scales were analyzed;finally,the driving mechanism of karst agricultural drought was revealed by geographic detector.The results showed that:(1) The drought intensity at different time scales in Guizhou Province showed an overall weakening trend over the 20-years period,and the drought area also showed a decreasing trend;the drought intensity and drought frequency showed a spatial distribution pattern of high in the west and low in the east.(2) The joint characteristic values of drought showed a pattern of autumn > winter > growing season > summer > year-round > spring,indicating that agricultural drought of higher intensity and larger area was prone to occur in autumn and winter in Guizhou Province.(3) Karst development intensity,rainfall and elevation were the main driving factors of agricultural drought in karst agriculture,and there was a strong coupling relationship with their spatial distribution;the interaction of different factors showed both two-way enhancement and non-linear enhancement of SSI,and there were few combinations without significant differences among factors,indicating that agricultural drought was the result of synergy among factors.The results can provide a reference basis for the monitoring of agricultural drought in karst agriculture and the formulation of drought prevention and anti-drought measures. |
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