滦河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响
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P333

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Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in Luanhe Basin
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    摘要:

    以滦河流域为研究区域,应用敏感性分析和双累积曲线法分析气候变化和人类活动对研究区径流变化的影响,结果表明:研究区流域径流存在明显的下降趋势,与基准期(1956—1979年)相比,变化期(1980—2013年)径流量减少了52.59 mm(50.43%);滦河流域径流对降水的敏感性系数?Q/?P为0.336 1,对潜在蒸散发的敏感性系数?Q/?E0为-0.123 5,气候变化影响量为22.23 mm;滦河流域径流变化过程中,人类活动影响量为32.07 mm,其贡献率为57.26%,远大于气候变化的影响39.69%,人类活动的影响是导致滦河流域径流减少的主要因素。

    Abstract:

    In this study, Luanhe basin was chose as the study area, and sensitivity analysis and double mass curve were used to analyze the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff. The results showed that the runoff in Luanhe basin decreased obviously, and the runoff in the change period (1980—2000) decreased 52.59 mm (50.43%) compared with the reference period (1956—1979); the sensitivity coefficients of runoff to precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were 0.336 1 and -0.123 5, respectively; in this change, the impact of climate change was 22.23 mm, while the impact of human activities was 32.07 mm and accounted for 57.26%, which was far greater than the climate change (39.69%).The human activities were the main impact factors causing the decrease of runoff in the Luanhe River basin.

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师 忱, 袁士保, 史常青, 赵廷宁.滦河流域气候变化与人类活动对径流的影响[J].水土保持学报,2018,32(2):264~269

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-04-18
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