冻融坡面土壤剥蚀率不同预测模型比较
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S157.1

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国家自然科学基金项目(41471225);辽宁省农业领域青年科技创新人才培养计划(2014054)


Research on Different Prediction Models of Soil Detachment Rate on Freeze-Thaw Slope
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    摘要:

    为探究水蚀因子对冻融坡面土壤剥蚀率的影响,采用2个坡度(10o,15o)、4个流量(4.5,6.5,8.5,10.5 L/min)和4个起始解冻深度(2,5,10,15 cm),模拟野外径流冲刷试验。采用BP神经网络方法和逐步回归分析法,分析土壤剥蚀率和流量、坡度、起始解冻深度、流速、水流剪切力、水流功率与单位水流功率7个水蚀因子关系。结果表明:通过BP神经网络连接权关系分析水蚀因子对冻融坡面土壤剥蚀率影响顺序为水流功率>单位水流功率>起始解冻深度>水流剪切力>流量>流速>坡度。BP神经网络模型的土壤剥蚀率预测平均误差为2.848%(R2=0.954);逐步回归模型的土壤剥蚀率预测平均误差4.820%(R2=0.925);基于单一水蚀因子(水流功率)模型的土壤剥蚀率预测平均误差5.298%(R2=0.867)。基于BP神经网络的土壤剥蚀率预测效果最好,为春季解冻时期冻融坡面不同起始解冻深度条件下土壤侵蚀预报模型的建立提供了新思路。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the effects of hydrodynamic erosion factors on soil detachment rate of freeze-thaw slope, two slopes (10°, and 15°), four flow rates (4.5, 6.5, 8.5 and 10.5 L/min), and four original thaw depth (2, 5, 10 and 15 cm) were designed to simulate filed runoff. By means of BP Neural Network and Stepwise Regression Analysis, we analyzed the relationship between the soil detachment rate and 7 hydrodynamic erosion factors, including stream power, unit stream power, original thaw depth, flow shear stress, flow rate, flow velocity and slope. The results showed that the rank of influence significance of hydrodynamic erosion factors from high to low was flow stream power>unit stream power>original thaw depth>flow shear stress>flow rate>flow velocity>gradient. Furthermore, according to BP Neural Network model, the average error of soil detachment rate prediction was 2.848% (R2=0.954). In view of Stepwise Regression Analysis model, the average error was 4.820% (R2=0.925). According to Single Hydrodynamic Erosion Factors (Stream power) model, the average error was 5.298% (R2=0.867). In general, the prediction effect based on BP Neural Network was better than others. This study provides a new idea for the establishment of soil erosion prediction model under different original thaw depths in the spring thaw period.

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鲍永雪, 王 瑄, 周丽丽, 张 凯, 陈志强.冻融坡面土壤剥蚀率不同预测模型比较[J].水土保持学报,2017,(5):127~132

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-10-27
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